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Tuesday, June 19, 2007

The Ten Commandments of NFL Betting
Part 3.

Fresh from the motherfucking mountain top, I present to you the seventh and eighth of the ten commandments of NFL betting. But first, here are the first six from part 1 and part 2:

1. Thou shalt not bet on one shitty team to beat another shitty team.

2. Thou shalt not bet on a Sunday or Monday night game that would not be of betting interest had it been played at 1 PM on Sunday.

3. Thou shalt not place any wager on a game involving the Lions unless it also involves a Super Bowl contending team and the bet is against the Lions.

4. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's wager.

5. Thou shalt not parlay more than three wagers.

6. Thou shalt not believe any event with a money line will occur with certainty.

7. Thou shalt remember the Sabbath and keep it holy.

There is no regular season sporting event as fun to watch as a college football game between two national powers. There are shitloads of them throughout the season and this is why college football reigns supreme over all other sports--until you get to the 'postseason' when the NCAA wipes away any and all legitimacy from the season. If you don't agree with me, you can go back to Brandeis, unzip the corduroys of your favorite Humanities professor, and suck his soiled cock with all the gusto you cried your eyes out thinking of how horrible it would be to be 'just a number' at some big state school your senior year at Shelterville Preparatory Academy.

That said, college football Saturdays are not when you want to be sweating out a tough parlay. Crazy shit happens all the time in college football and this is why it is best practice to save your wagering for Sundays, when the professionals go to work. Remember some of the stupid shit you did when you were in your late teens and early twenties? Imagine if someone was betting on whether or not you would make it to class at 10AM. Don't bother thinking about who has the better run defense, the ATS record at home, or any of that shit. Just enjoy the game and save your wagering for the Sunday Sabbath, the day of 'the Lord', aka Ladainian Tomlinson*.

8. Thou shalt not make foolish wagers following the outcome of a significant wager.

What does a raging alcoholic the morning after drinking at an open bar event and the exponential distribution have in common with a successful gambler? The memoryless property. After losing, say, one hundred dollars on the 1PM games, going heavy on a team that is +260 to win during one of the 4PM games looks awfully tempting. "When life fucks me, I fuck back!", you say. If by chance you had a big win or two in the early games and find yourself sitting on a nice big balance, you probably want to get right back in the game and continue what you started. Among the bets you want to put down is inevitably a throw-away bet or two. "Shit, I'm up a shitload. What's twenty-five bucks to me at this point? I'll just put a couple long shots out there and see what happens." Scenario one: by the time the sun goes down, it's clear that you're going to be down $150. Scenario two: You turned your big day into just barely enough to cover your bar tab, if that. Wait until your emotional high or low zeros out before making your next move. Bet like Kenny Rogers attacks cameramen. Without any emotion whatsoever.

* I have $50 on 'There is no Hell' at -105.

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