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Monday, June 11, 2007

Ten Commandments for NFL Betting
Part 1.

The single most regrettable action that a Lions fan can do is to bet on them to win a game. Every week I have to try talk myself out of it. It's a tough battle that usually goes something like this:

"I really really want to bet on Lions this week. Green Bay is fucking terrible. Shit, what am I talking about, the Lions are terrible too. But they're playing in Detroit. They really should win this game--Favre hasn't owned us in Detroit, and he's older and shittier than ever. Stop it! Stop! It's one thing to be foolish enough to 'believe' that this team, go to a bar to watch it in my Charles Rogers jersey, and leave disappointed, but it's another to have put some money down on it. But they played so well last week against a team that is definitely playoff-caliber! If they play like that, they will definitely crush the Packers! Exactly. If. If if if. You know what teams are OK to assume will play well with few stupid penalties or bad turnovers? Good teams. Teams that will make the playoffs. The Lions are not that kind of team."

Looking through the Lions schedule, I think they will be favored in only three games.
1. week 2 vs. the Vikings
2. week 7 vs. Tampa
3. week 12 vs. Green Bay

The sad thing is that they will almost surely lose one of these games, and very possibly two. Last year they disgraced themselves at home to Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Francisco, so it's very possible that they will lose all three of these games too. The Lions did not defeat a single team in the NFC North in 2006. As shitty as the Lions have been as a franchise, I can't remember another year where they didn't beat one of those teams. Yet somehow they managed to beat three upwardly average teams in the Cowboys, Falcons, and Bills.

And now for my first three rules for NFL betting for 2007...
1. Thou shalt not bet on one shitty team to beat another shitty team.

Even though the shitty team may be playing a team that may be perceived as being shittier than the shitty steam, the team you are betting on is still shitty, which is a shitty thing to do.

2. Thou shalt not bet on a Sunday or Monday night game that would not be of betting interest had it been played at 1 PM on Sunday.

This is a clear violation of Arnie's 'best practices', but my success in these games is piss poor. An example of this kind of game from last year would have been a Dallas/Atlanta game in early November. At that point both teams looked decent but either side could have won and I probably hadn't seen either team enough to feel confident. Rule #2 will tell me to just watch the game and save my money for snuff films and precious ammo.

3. Thou shalt not place any wager on a game involving the Lions unless it also involves a Super Bowl contending team and the bet is against the Lions.

It is never a good idea to bet on the Lions, but since they sometimes beat teams in the shitty to upwardly average range, betting against them should be avoided as well.

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