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Friday, September 19, 2008

Making Money One Unbelievably Lopsided Game at a Time

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Those of you who didn't checkoutmyhemi before last weekend's slate of games missed out on some very profitable advice. Hopefully you at least wagered on USC to cover the spread. I suspect that the gentleman in the blue hat on the right side of the picture joined The Battleship's convoy to cash city and took USC -29.5 at +1200. Don't let my 4-10-1 record in the Sunday games fool you. There are very few sound investment opportunities out there and my job is to help you identify the best ones.

This week I'm going to continue to focus on amateurs. There are two lines out there that really appeal to me. The first is LSU -135 at Auburn. You can take the -2 at -115 if you like but I'll buy those two points for 13 cents on the dollar, particularly in a game like this. Both teams have strong defenses so I suspect very few points, particularly from Auburn, which managed to score 3 points against Mississippi State last week.

The other line that I like is under 50.5 points in the Georgia at Arizona State game. Georgia has a phenomenal defense while Arizona State is coming off a 20 point effort against UNLV. On the other side of the ball, Georgia struggled to score last week against an admittedly tough South Carolina defense. Georgia does have a pretty good offense but they also have a lot of inexperience on the offensive line which makes it difficult to sustain drives. I think they'll put up points but not without some hiccups.

It is still a little early in the season for me to feel comfortable prognositcating on NFL games. There are a few teams out there that we know are pretty bad (Detroit, St. Louis, Miami, Cincinnatti, Kansas City) and a few that are pretty good (Dallas, Pittsburgh) but overall I'm still not sure about a lot of teams. Is New England still good without Tom Brady? They are 2-0 and they beat the Jets on the road last week, but are the Jets any good? With such a small sample size of games to choose from I'm not really sure about these professional games yet but my picks are below anyway. And one game that I really do like is Carolina +3 against Minnesota. Carolina has Steve Smith returning, which should help Jake Delhomme tremendously. On the flip side, Gus Ferotte is now the Vikings QB. Gus Ferotte is not a very good quarterback, and he's really old. If you take my advice for any of the NFL games, make it this one. My other picks are:

Kansas City, Buffalo, Tennessee, NY Giants, Washington, Miami, Chicago, Carolina, St. Louis, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Dallas, NY Jets


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