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Sunday, October 12, 2008

Back when I graduated college I was given some money by relatives, with the thought that I would use it like an adult to kick off my adult life. I decided that buying shares in IBM was a great idea, so after paying off some credit card debt I used about 80% of it on those shares. No more than a week after the purchase, IBM shares dropped more than it had in several years. Then it fell some more. I ended up selling it and buying some cheaper riskier stock that lost me some more money. Then I ended up closing out my positions about a year later with about 25% of what I started with. Ever since then I have been basically living check-to-check.

When I was forced to stay home and recover from my illness recently, daytime sporting options were limited so I turned to CNBC for edutainment. I sat and watched as the major indexes got beaten up day after day. When the DJIA dipped under 10k I really wished I had taken that graduation money and put it under my mattress to save for a time like this. It's gametime, baby! It's time to do some bottom feeding. And it's time to start investing betting on options.

Options are the methadone for sports gambling addicts. The idea is simple: Each stock has an over/under for some game time in the future. Some options are like quarter lines, some are longer. With options, the game only ends when that date associated with the over/under - the expiration date - is passed. There are no commercial breaks during the game, except for the end of trading day to the start of the next one. The two most fun differences between sports betting and options are

1) With options, you don't stop at a fixed amount of profit if the stock gets the over (or under) - your profit depends on how much they cover by.

2) You can cash out an option at any point. If there was a trading market for sports bets, maybe you could sell a sure bet near the end of a game for your peace of mind or you could "surrender" like in blackjack a bet that looks really bad halfway through the first quarter to get something back.

The only problem is that it's hard to know all the stocks as well as you know the NFL or even the college football teams. Just going to take time.

Alas, it's a big commercial in the market so might as well make some money on NFL games. (Cue up that old Ritual de la Habitual tape) HERE WE GO!

Raiders (+7) at SAINTS
Raiders will probably lose another game they should have won, by fewer than a touchdown. A real presser would parlay Raiders + 7 with the Saints money line. I ain't that stupid.

Ravens (+3.5) at COLTS
Back when I lived with the Battleship, some game was on that I had money on and in a fit of excited drunkenness I shouted "Hit 'em in the bitch!". Complete nonsense that was enjoyed by all. The Colts are going to get hit in their bitch today.

Bengals (+10) at JETS
Jets aren't good enough to be a 10 pt fav against anyone other than the Rams and Lions. Bengals stayed close against the other NJ team so they should be ok in this one.

BUCS (-1.5) vs Panthers
Just because I don't want to take four straight road dogs

VIKINGS (-13) vs Lions
MOOOOO! Baaaaah! Oink oink! Farm-better's special of the week, pt 1.

Bears (-3) at FALCONS
Might as well parlay this with the under 43.5

PHINS (+3) at TEXANS
What a joke of a line, the Texans are going to get raped, raped, raped.

REDSKINS (-12.5) vs Rams
Cock-a-doodle-doo! Neigh! Farm-better's special of the week, pt 2.

Jags (+3) at BRONCOS
This is another team that's gonna get hit in its bitch.

Eagles (-4.5) at 49'ERS
This is almost a bet-the-farm kind of game.

Boys (-4.5) at CARDS
Why is this not -7?

Les Packeurs (+1) at SEA-MEN
The seamen are going to get wiped clean from the face of their own hit-bitch.

Pats (+5) at CHARGERS
what a great game this would have been last year.

BROWNS (+9) vs Giants
too many points for a home team to get.

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