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Thursday, October 09, 2008

Parlay Party

Every week I scour the college football lines hoping to find at least one game that I like enough to recommend for gambling purposes. I take this responsibility very seriously. My readers deserve nothing but the most reliable investment advice possible and so far I've delivered, with a 4-0 record on the year.

I'm taking it up a notch. The football season is too short to waste moneymaking opportunities like the ones on the table this week. For the first time ever, I'm giving you a three-team parlay that will pay 9/1 after the juice. And without further ado...

Wisconsin (+190) vs. Penn State

Penn State is not that good and they are particularly vulnerable on the road, where they never beat good teams. The last time that Penn State beat a ranked opponent on the road was in 2002, against the Badgers, coincidentally. Wisconsin finished the year 8-6 and unranked. The last time that Penn State won on the road over a team that finished the season ranked was in 1999, when the beat Miami (FL).

But how is that significant? Wisconsin is hovering on the edge of the rankings and, potentially, a very bad (for the Badgers) season. Well, Wisconsin is not as bad as they showed two weeks ago in a fluky second half loss at Michigan and they are a very tough team at home, as evidenced by last week's performance against Ohio State. The Badgers are too big and physical for Penn State and will grind them up at the line of scrimmage on offense and defense.

Before last week, the last time Wisconsin lost a night game was in 2001 at Oregon and the last time they lost a night game at home was in 1995 against Colorado. The last time they lost two night games in the same season was 1986. Wisconsin is 21-3 in night games since 1995. Clearly, this has absolutely no bearing on what will happen in tonight's game but I thought it was interesting.

Vanderbilt (-2) at Mississippi State

Vandy was my winning pick last week and I'm going to keep riding them as long as the oddsmakers continue to disrespect them. They are 5-0 ATS and overall this year. Mississippi State is 1-4 overall and 2-2 ATS. Their only win was over SE Louisiana, a team so unremarkable that there was no spread for the game. And somehow Vandy is only -2. I know MSU was a little frisky in their last game against LSU. Whatever, they are still a bad team. And Vandy is a good team, Brent Musberger's declaration of their win last week over Auburn being a "Music City Miracle" notwithstanding.

Over 41 Arkansas at Auburn

I've already hated on Auburn's ability to score twice this year with great success. Tommy Tubberville caught on this week when he fired his offensive coordinator. When is the last time you heard of a coach firing one of his coordinators during the season? Auburn's offense is a mess but they do play very well defensively. Arkansas, meanwhile, is just a mess. If either team scores more than 20 I'll be surprised.

That is the parlay. Do yourself a favor, don't just parlay two of these picks or bet on each game individually. This is not a time to be conservative. Just take the full three-team parlay and prepare to win some cash.

(Worthless) NFL picks to come later.


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