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Sunday, October 26, 2008

Post your record

A note to the other contributors...Post your records. How are our readers supposed to decide whose advice to follow if they don't know our records. Anyway. Deposit made in the Beekeeper's commode. On to the picks.

Ravens (-8.5) VS Oakland
Raiders re not a good team on at home. They are worse on the road, especially playing a 1pm game.

Saints (+3) VS Chargers
The chargers have the worst pass D in the league and are almost 10000 miles from home. The Saints have Brew Brees.

Jets (-14) VS Chiefs
Can you imagine being 14 point dogs to the Jets? Poor KC.

Bills (+1) @ Dolphins
Buffalo gets no respect. I'll give it to them.

Bucs (+1.5) @ Cowboys
For all the shit that has been talked about the 'Boys, they are still favorites. The curse ofRoy Williams continues. Which one, I have no idea.

Eagles (-9.5) VS Falcons
I would not throw any of my money on this game. 9.5 seems like a lot, but i still went with the Eagles. Who knows?

Pats (-9) VS Rams
Rams fans are happy that their team is no longer compared to the Lions.

Carolina (-5.5) VS Cardinals
I dunno.

Redskins (-7.5) @ Lions
Why only 7.5? I have no idea.

Jags (-7) VS Browns
Kellen Winslow's nuts are full of pus. That sucks.

Giants (+3) @ Steelers
Going with the champs. Esp with Santonio Holmes' reefer issues.

49ers (-5.5) VS Seahawks
Can you believe Seneca Wallace is a starting QB in the NFL? I can't.

Bungals (+9) @ Texans
Here is the Bungals first win. The Texans aren't the kind of team that can beat the Lions and Bungals in back-to-back weeks.

Titans (-4) VS Colts
The Titans always play the Colts tough. Now they are the better team.

Last Week: 7-6-1
Season: 37-31-2
I myself have to skip the pithy commentary and cut right to the chase, in fact after the Dr. gets off the can, he's gonna need this computer.

Raiders @ Raiders -7
Saints + 3 vs Chargers
Chiefs @ Jets -14
Bills -1.5 @ Dolphins
CBoyz vs Bucs +1.5
Eagles vs Falcons +9
Rams @ Pats -7.5
Cards +4 @ Panthers
Lions vs Redskins -7.5
Browns +7 @ Jags
Steelers -3 vs Giants
49ers vs Seamen +5.5
Bengals +9 @ Texans
Colts +4 @ Titans

Friday, October 24, 2008

Forcing Focus on Football

I'm having trouble focusing on football. My teams stink - both in reality and fantasy. Bigtime action in the non-sporting markets. Girls have pussies and breasts. Uncooked bacon needs to be cooked and eaten.

But I did manage to strap it on and went out to a bar last Sunday to watch the Lions. My bartender happened to be a Texans fan, wearing a jersey and everything. First Texans fan I've ever seen in person. You see those Texans and Jaguars fans at their stadiums, some of whom have their faces painted, and it turns out they are real people. This guy didn't even have a Texas accent or anything. This week I won't have to leave my apartment to watch the Lions as they are playing at home vs Redskins. I expect Portis to go for 175 on the ground and Lions to turn it over 3+ times. Yet the Lions will probably stay in the game because the Redskins don't blow teams out. Of course they haven't played the Lions yet.

Raiders + 7 @ Raiders
Saints + 3 vs Chargers
Chiefs + 14 @ Jets
Bills -1.5 @ Dolphins
CBoyz -1.5 vs Bucs
Eagles -9 vs Falcons
Rams +7.5 @ Pats
Cards +4 @ Panthers
Lions +7.5 vs Redskins
Browns +7 @ Jags
Steelers -3 vs Giants
49ers -5.5 vs Seamen
Bengals +9 @ Texans
Colts +4 @ Titans

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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Mastro "Can 2 great weeks lead me to" V?

Getting long-winded on yo asses today. No more abbreviations, just names and feelings:

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (-10) – EWRa is pissed, real pissed. Sorry 49ers, you get to play all the NFC East teams after bad losses, you get crushed.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8½) at Cincinnati Bengals – As usual the away team wins, and this year, the Bunglers are so bungling it’s pathetic. Thought this should be a 2 TD line, especially with no Carson.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (+8½) - I like Le Titans (i.e. Giganticos, or something like that), but come on, they aren’t a high-powered offense and KC is at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3) – Ugh, NFC North. Well, we all know it’s gonna be an awful game, but I think Bears are better. Gonna be a push.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1) – If Edwards plays whole game, gonna be long day for SAN up in the near-great white North.

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Carolina Panthers – Now NFC South games are good games, but you never know what the f---- gonna happen. Saints have all their weapons back. This is an NO win.

Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (+8) – No ex-vide game named CB. No Homo. Means Boys come out mean and extreme, but Rams have new found life with Haslett. This is real tough, but have to lean with STL.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) – Ech. Another bad game. Dolphins.
Detroit Lions (+10½) at Houston Texans - Two C’s in a row for the Lions? Both away? Signs point to yes.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders – So Raiders don’t perform on road where they have no distractions. Now they have all the distractions of playing at home in front of Raiders fans that may actually hurt some players. Revolt happening and this is the start of it all. Favre loves tearing the Raiders new ones.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (+2½) – Pack. Has to be or else me unhappy.

Cleveland Browns (+7½) at Washington Redskins - Browns have confidence (a little) and now go up against a mediocre Skins team, seriously.

Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Hawks are real bad. Bucs that good? No

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-3) – Pats will not be embarrassed at home on Monday night. Somehow think Shananhans’s balls get so big he costs them the game.
Welcome back, doc

I have to apologize for failing to make my picks last week. I was out of town for a wedding. Who knew it was harder to find decent internet access in Narragansset, Rhode Island than in Danli, Honduras. But I digress. You may have noticed that the last few weeks, I have not had much to say other than my picks. That ends today. A couple of weeks ago I had the privilege of driving in Barry Obama's motorcade on his visit to the D. I also got to meet him. The photographer is being punished as we speak.

Yes, that is my hand.

For those of you that have never driven in a motorcade, I highly recommend it. It is a unique experience to drive out onto the tarmac and then have the freeway closed off for you by motorcycle cops while you speed by all of the suckers stuck on the exit ramps. The fact that I was the only volunteer that had a secret service agent ride shotgun has nothing to do with the Pakistani origin of my name. I assure you.

But enough of my excuses. On to the business at hand. First I would like to congratulate the Michigan State Spartans on their truly Spartan-like performance yesterday. Any of you that wagered on MSU must never have spent any time in this state. Just as every year at this time, the leaves turn brilliant colors, the MSU Spartans find a way to shit the bed, thus ruining a potentially great season. For the record:

2007- Start 5-2, final 7-6

2006- Start 3-0, final 4-8

2005 Start 4-0, final 5-6

2004 Start 4-3, final 5-7

2003 Start 7-1, final 8-5

I could keep going, but the point has been made. Every year the Spartans start off strong, making their fans believe, 'this is our year'. Every year they shit the bed in their first real challenge. This year has been different in that the Wolverines have been god-awful, so the local talk radio stations are running constant 'Is this the year MSU surpasses Michigan for state supremacy and wins a Big Ten/national title.' The Spartans were kind enough to answer that question for everyone. Thanks guys.

On to the professionals:

Titans (-9) @ Chiefs

The Chiefs are a very bad team and the Titans are a very good team. This does have trap game written all over it, so I will not be placing any of my own money on this game.

Chargers (even) @ Bills

Did the Chargers turn the corner with their victory over the Pats? I am still not convinced, but let's see how Trent Edwards responds to being concussed.

Steelers (-8.5) @ Bungals

Rule #1: If a Harvard statistician is giving you advice on what team to wager on, take it. If a Harvard QB is starting for an NFL team, bet against them.

Ravens (+3) @ Dolphins

A bit puzzling, but the Ravens did get smoked last week. I think they bounce back. The threat of a teammate putting a contract out on your life is a great motivator.

Cowboys (-8) @ Rams

Even Brad johnson can cover 8 in St Louis.

Bears (-3) Vs Vikings

This is the first home team I am picking to cover. Makes me a bit uncomfortable. The vikings just haven't gotten their running game going like everyone expected. I don't think that changes today.

Saints (+3) @ Panthers

Drew Brees is the MVP thus far, and he gets Colston and Shockey back this week. I like the Saints.

49ers (+10) @ Giants

The Giants looked pretty bad last week. I think 10 is a lot to ask vs. a decent 49ers team.

Lions (+10.5) @ Texans

Oh my god! What have I done?!? The Lions??? I should know better.

Jets (-3) @ Raiders

The Jets have seemed to blow out their lesser opponents while shitting the bed vs. the good ones. The Raiders are a lesser opponent.

Browns (+7.5) @ Redskins

I think the Browns may have found their offense last week. We will see if it is enough to cover the 7.5.

Colts (-2.5) @ Packers

The Colts also seemed to find their offense last week. Trouble for the Al Harris-less Packers.

Bucs (-10.5) VS Seahawks

Only the second home team I have picked to cover. Does not seem like good betting strategy. Hell of a choice for a sunday night game, NBC.

Pats (-3) VS Broncos

I still have a hard time betting against the Pats. Esp. with the Broncos horrible D and struggling O.

Season record: 30-25-1

How do you want to lose this week?

Ok all affinity I may have had for those in the big 12 who rage against the dying of the cover (yes, I hate to say it, you 2nd least favorite team) died yesterday with Oklahoma letting in that late Kansas touchdown. The moral of the story: The visor (long the headgear of choice for Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops), is basically a figurative and literal signification of a reluctance to cover. Why do I have this odd visual of that Kansas coach screaming "Do you see what happens Danny! Do you! This is what happens when you f*ck a stranger in the ass!" Speaking of signifying, how bout those Spartans? Could anything have typified Michigan State football better than that game yesterday? I guess if there's one winner here, its that forlorn lot of people who are MSU and Lions season ticket holders. They are spared from dragging their forlorn hides to Ford Field today. Knowing their luck, probably Stanton would have gotten a surprise start to put the capper on it all.

Titans v KC (+9)
Lotta points for a home dog there, but I see TN covering....perhaps in the first half and never looking back

SD @ BUF (-1)
I like the Bills. A lot. I really hope they win. I basically have no rooting interest in the NFL anymore so I basically like any team one of my non-Lions fan friends like so I can vicariously claim some other team as 'mine'. If the Lions want to use any part of that statement in any promotional materials, they have my consent.

PIT @ CIN (-9.5)
See above.

IND @ GB (+1.5)
See an aside, Id think that the ethnic composition of these towns designates this game is the von Lucshan game of the week (Sorry Vikings, but you're playing the Bears).

Now that Im done being a homer for my favoritest teams....

BAL @ MIA (-3)
I think Miami isnt as bad as everyone assumed them to be. Baltimore, however, is far crappier than we already know.

DAL @ STL (+7)
Medical technology is really something these days. Tony Romo went from out for 4 weeks to playing in this quasi-exhibition game in the space of four days. I guess they must have stem cell research going on down there. Incidentally, why did Brett Farve find it necessary to encourage Romo to play personally? Maybe somebody else thinks this is a good bet too. I guess those $10 co-pays can add up.

MIN @ CHI (-3)
I guess its time to give some lip service to Minnesota's great run defense and how Chicago cant pass and blah blah blah. God I hate the NFC North.

NO @ CAR (-3)
I guess Shockey's back and Colston too. About time you invalid MFs. Still it wont help, or get your correspondent any fantasy points.

SF @ NYG (-10.5)
I think the Giants are having flashbacks to that game they should have lost to the Lions last year. This was the driving force behind their crapping out last week, and they will not cover against yet another bad team this week. Serves me right for betting on them on Monday.

DET @ HOU (-9.5)
In richer times, we could have said something cute like "guess who's the expansion team?" Not anymore, they're a heavy favorite and deserve more points than this. Id go so far as to call this a lock.

NYJ @ OAK (+3)
I think that probably the Jets will cover here, but I wouldnt recommend betting on this game as you'll then feel inclined to watch it.

CLE @ WAS (-7.5)
Was that Monday night game a fluke? Probably, and thats why you shouldn't listen to me.

SEA @ TB (-10.5)
What do Joe Tiller and Mike Holmgren have in common? They're both owed a lot of back child support by Wilfred Brimley, you're probably thinking. Maybe. But mostly, they just really wish they could use a DVR on their coaching careers right now as this is prime fast-forward material.

DEN @ NE (-3)
Boy did MNF ever come up snake-eyes on this one.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Latter Day Non-Parlay Coverers

Yes, damn Cougars, during my late night nap the BoSox rallied incredibly and what did you do? Blow my 3 teamer. But serves me right for throwing you in the parlay just for shits and giggles. And that is the lesson. Once again staying away from anything college today unless and interesting cross teamer comes up. How about Rays -1.5 +140 and UT -5.5. Rays young, will forget debacle, somehow will win. UT #1 and happy, will scorch Missou who can't stop.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Sucky, turned golden for the Mastro. Now time to jump on and put money where mouth was, which is what I did with a nice Packers/Cardinals late game parlay. Go Car---d-eeeeee-naaaaaalllll!!! Was gonna put a call in for a nice Browns / Phills parlay, but chickened out. Next time, please urge me on for a cross-sporter.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Back when I graduated college I was given some money by relatives, with the thought that I would use it like an adult to kick off my adult life. I decided that buying shares in IBM was a great idea, so after paying off some credit card debt I used about 80% of it on those shares. No more than a week after the purchase, IBM shares dropped more than it had in several years. Then it fell some more. I ended up selling it and buying some cheaper riskier stock that lost me some more money. Then I ended up closing out my positions about a year later with about 25% of what I started with. Ever since then I have been basically living check-to-check.

When I was forced to stay home and recover from my illness recently, daytime sporting options were limited so I turned to CNBC for edutainment. I sat and watched as the major indexes got beaten up day after day. When the DJIA dipped under 10k I really wished I had taken that graduation money and put it under my mattress to save for a time like this. It's gametime, baby! It's time to do some bottom feeding. And it's time to start investing betting on options.

Options are the methadone for sports gambling addicts. The idea is simple: Each stock has an over/under for some game time in the future. Some options are like quarter lines, some are longer. With options, the game only ends when that date associated with the over/under - the expiration date - is passed. There are no commercial breaks during the game, except for the end of trading day to the start of the next one. The two most fun differences between sports betting and options are

1) With options, you don't stop at a fixed amount of profit if the stock gets the over (or under) - your profit depends on how much they cover by.

2) You can cash out an option at any point. If there was a trading market for sports bets, maybe you could sell a sure bet near the end of a game for your peace of mind or you could "surrender" like in blackjack a bet that looks really bad halfway through the first quarter to get something back.

The only problem is that it's hard to know all the stocks as well as you know the NFL or even the college football teams. Just going to take time.

Alas, it's a big commercial in the market so might as well make some money on NFL games. (Cue up that old Ritual de la Habitual tape) HERE WE GO!

Raiders (+7) at SAINTS
Raiders will probably lose another game they should have won, by fewer than a touchdown. A real presser would parlay Raiders + 7 with the Saints money line. I ain't that stupid.

Ravens (+3.5) at COLTS
Back when I lived with the Battleship, some game was on that I had money on and in a fit of excited drunkenness I shouted "Hit 'em in the bitch!". Complete nonsense that was enjoyed by all. The Colts are going to get hit in their bitch today.

Bengals (+10) at JETS
Jets aren't good enough to be a 10 pt fav against anyone other than the Rams and Lions. Bengals stayed close against the other NJ team so they should be ok in this one.

BUCS (-1.5) vs Panthers
Just because I don't want to take four straight road dogs

VIKINGS (-13) vs Lions
MOOOOO! Baaaaah! Oink oink! Farm-better's special of the week, pt 1.

Bears (-3) at FALCONS
Might as well parlay this with the under 43.5

What a joke of a line, the Texans are going to get raped, raped, raped.

REDSKINS (-12.5) vs Rams
Cock-a-doodle-doo! Neigh! Farm-better's special of the week, pt 2.

Jags (+3) at BRONCOS
This is another team that's gonna get hit in its bitch.

Eagles (-4.5) at 49'ERS
This is almost a bet-the-farm kind of game.

Boys (-4.5) at CARDS
Why is this not -7?

Les Packeurs (+1) at SEA-MEN
The seamen are going to get wiped clean from the face of their own hit-bitch.

Pats (+5) at CHARGERS
what a great game this would have been last year.

BROWNS (+9) vs Giants
too many points for a home team to get.

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Can everyone suck any less? Mr B-Ships auto-win parlay comes up a wimpy 1-2. With his UW ML looking like he was on crack or something. Don't you remember that UM beat UW? That means they suck.

Then Michigan lays a supreme egg, leaving this fan to tell Rocket fans, "Good game". Don't need to reiterate our record against MAC teams, though I saw one stat that had this conditional: "current MAC teams". So we've lost to a previous MAC team? Anyone know what is?

Then my streak of cross-sporters comes up dead. Can't seem to get on the right end of the ALCS team. But today I will put another out there, for "no guts, no money", is the creed of the true gambling man/addict. And I really like them Phils. You'll have to read this entire blog to get today's cross-sporter...

So, another NFL week is upon us and let it be known all fans of Michigan pro-football and baseball, here come the Wisconsites. Will try and pick out some quick comparisons:
  • Packers AND Lions both have lost to the Falcons
  • Brewers AND Tigers done in by shoddy defense in the playoffs

I know Finger-licious can pull some more, but I thought these were very recent and valid comparisons of demise.

So to start the picks, let's start in the NFC North, which is only the second worst division behind the AFC North. Man, they really should make these 2 play each other every year. Wouldn't it be grand to see feline match-up Bengal v Lion? I mean might as well put 2 real cats out there and let them maul. Better than watching Palmer and Kitna trying to prove who should have started 3-4 years ago in the Nati. Meat Packers vs. Steel Workers? Forget the QBs, let's get some mobs out there to brawl. Mistake on the Lake vs. Un-Mistake on the Lake? Two teams whose rise and fall actually seem to coincide. (Side note: If you can find a good antonym for mistake, let me know). Sister Cities Unite! St. Paul (Minneapolis) vs Baltimore (maybe stretching a little with DC), but both teams play like each other. An offense that can't seem to go anywhere, and a defense that is the backbone.

Ok, ok, here are my picks using airport codes....

GRB (+1) @ SEA - Ok, so Hasselback is dinged up, they have no receivers and the Pack was humiliated last week. This is a homer pick, not a true indication, though SEA is bad. I love the send off they are doing for Holmgren, which is pretty much nothing.

DTW @ MSP (-13) - Though this is exactly the game the Lions show up for. Kitna OUT, Vikings another great running team ala the Falcons. Is this a repeat of that shellacking? Well, yes and no. Yes, in that it's a laugher, no in the fact that the Lions MC. I switch my pick: DTW (+13) @ MSP. Goooo Lions!

STL (+13) @ IAD - These NFC East teams are all high on themselves. I see the Skins falter a little and keep Bulger, who has LOTS to prove, a chance in this game. Or STL really does stink and it's a DTW / STL race to the #1 pick.

CVG (+9) @ EWRb - (As a note, since the Jets and Giants play in same place, I had to use EWR for both. Jets are b and Giants are a.) Seriously, the Bengals aren't an 0-5 team. They're bad but not that bad. Let the Cardinals game be an absolute aberration. As I said in that post, they were flying cross-country. Bad thing. Bengals short flight, but I forget now that Palmer is out. I do a late switch again: CVG @ EWRb (-9)

OAK (+7) @ MSY - Easy question for the Raiders. Do you pack it in to give a big ol Fuck You to Al "I have no pals" Davis? Or do you have some respect and dedicate the win to Kiflin? Did Kiflin really do anything? Anyway, OAK is actually decent and 7 points is all they need. They win this game over a reeling Saints team that realizes that there offense can't just be punting it to Bush.

MIA (+3) @ IAH - This is a toughy, I come back later. MIA wins. Texans get humiliated again.

ORD @ ATL (+3) - ATL makes it 3-0 versus the NFC North. They realize they are for real and why they held on to Vick for so long that a freaking rookie QB can take them from laughingstock to respectability, oh yeah and Michael Turner is pretty good.

BWI @ IND (-4) - Seriously? This is my lock of the week. Where lock = 99%. Anyway, Ravens get bitch slapped back to no offense reality. Ray Lewis takes over at QB by shooting Flacco. He gets convicted and all is right in the world with him and OJ behind bars.

JAX @ DEN (-3.5) - Mile high is what it used to be again. A place where Denver wins and covers.

PHL (-4.5) @ SFO - Even without Westy, Donovan is so mad he could hug TO. Blowout.

DFW @ PHX (+4.5) - Cards are happy. Imagine when they were still in the NFC East, now in the West they are top dogs and aim to payback the Boys. Pacman's bodyguard also appears and tackles Pacman inches from running one back. Breaston shows up again.

BOS (+5) @ SAN - Can't figure out this line. Pats are solid and SD aren't that solid. Cassells first prime time game and since he's never played one before (I think) he doesn't know he should suck. Just throw it to Moss.

EWRa @ CLE (+9) - I'm using lines on yahoo sports, rest were 7.5. Got to take the Browns here. Plex is back and will somehow cause issues. Maybe a spike after a first down without being touched anyone?

Here is the cross-sports parlay: LAX ML + BOS +5. Good luck to all

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Parlay Party

Every week I scour the college football lines hoping to find at least one game that I like enough to recommend for gambling purposes. I take this responsibility very seriously. My readers deserve nothing but the most reliable investment advice possible and so far I've delivered, with a 4-0 record on the year.

I'm taking it up a notch. The football season is too short to waste moneymaking opportunities like the ones on the table this week. For the first time ever, I'm giving you a three-team parlay that will pay 9/1 after the juice. And without further ado...

Wisconsin (+190) vs. Penn State

Penn State is not that good and they are particularly vulnerable on the road, where they never beat good teams. The last time that Penn State beat a ranked opponent on the road was in 2002, against the Badgers, coincidentally. Wisconsin finished the year 8-6 and unranked. The last time that Penn State won on the road over a team that finished the season ranked was in 1999, when the beat Miami (FL).

But how is that significant? Wisconsin is hovering on the edge of the rankings and, potentially, a very bad (for the Badgers) season. Well, Wisconsin is not as bad as they showed two weeks ago in a fluky second half loss at Michigan and they are a very tough team at home, as evidenced by last week's performance against Ohio State. The Badgers are too big and physical for Penn State and will grind them up at the line of scrimmage on offense and defense.

Before last week, the last time Wisconsin lost a night game was in 2001 at Oregon and the last time they lost a night game at home was in 1995 against Colorado. The last time they lost two night games in the same season was 1986. Wisconsin is 21-3 in night games since 1995. Clearly, this has absolutely no bearing on what will happen in tonight's game but I thought it was interesting.

Vanderbilt (-2) at Mississippi State

Vandy was my winning pick last week and I'm going to keep riding them as long as the oddsmakers continue to disrespect them. They are 5-0 ATS and overall this year. Mississippi State is 1-4 overall and 2-2 ATS. Their only win was over SE Louisiana, a team so unremarkable that there was no spread for the game. And somehow Vandy is only -2. I know MSU was a little frisky in their last game against LSU. Whatever, they are still a bad team. And Vandy is a good team, Brent Musberger's declaration of their win last week over Auburn being a "Music City Miracle" notwithstanding.

Over 41 Arkansas at Auburn

I've already hated on Auburn's ability to score twice this year with great success. Tommy Tubberville caught on this week when he fired his offensive coordinator. When is the last time you heard of a coach firing one of his coordinators during the season? Auburn's offense is a mess but they do play very well defensively. Arkansas, meanwhile, is just a mess. If either team scores more than 20 I'll be surprised.

That is the parlay. Do yourself a favor, don't just parlay two of these picks or bet on each game individually. This is not a time to be conservative. Just take the full three-team parlay and prepare to win some cash.

(Worthless) NFL picks to come later.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Hi all. Long week again. Some developments that definately need to be discussed. Unfortunately the games have already started, so in order for me to be able to watch, on to the picks:

Colts (-3) @ Texans
Again the Texans are getting too much respect. Why?

Titans (-2) @ Ravens
This is a toss-up in my book. Joe Flacco vs. Kerry Collins, very underwhelming.

Chargers (-6) @ Dolphins
Dolphins stink.

Carolina (-9.5) VS Chiefs
Who cares.

Eagles (-6.5) VS Redskins
The return of Westbrook bodes well for the Eagles.

Bears (-3) @ Lions
While I agree that the Lions got better immediately by letting go of Millen. 3 points is still a mystery.

Giants (-6.5) VS Seahawks
Are there any seahawks fans anywhere? Have you ever met one? They were in the super bowl here in the D and I still never met one.

Broncos (-4) Vs Bucs
The question here is, was last week the Broncos getting their bed-shitting out of the way or a sign of things to come.

Pats (-3) @ SF
If Brady was playing the line would be 13. Has any one player ever been worth 10 points in the spread? I doubt it.

Bills (+1.5) @ Cards
Not really sure why the Cards are favored. Maybe bettors are thinking that the Bills will wilt in the heat. I doubt it.

Cowboys (-16) VS Bengals
Bengals stink.

Steelers (+6) @ Jaguars
Too many points

Saints (-3) vs Vikings
Should be a shootout. To the delight of my fantasy team.
First of all I want to give a very heart-felt thanks to the Nebraska Cornhuskers for scoring a meaningless (to some) touchdown with no time on the clock icing the over and a 3 team parlay for your correspondent. I did only have $5 on it, but style points nevertheless. And with that he'res how I'll be squandering it:

IND @ HOU (+3)
Indy's awful dont kid yourself. I guess they found a way to beat the bears (?!?!) and get their nominal superbowl win. The bloom is off the rose, just in time for their new stadium. Even Marvin Harrison is having off the field problems. They'll probably still cover this one though.

TN @ BAL (+2)
I think Im going to go with Baltimore here, wouldnt bet on it though.

SD @ MIA (+6)
Lotta home doggs this week. I think 6 is too many though.

KC @ CAR (-9.5)
I think KC may have gotten all the covering out of their system last week.

@ PHI (-6.5)
Philly kinda looks to be slowing down a bit.

CHI @ DET (-3)

ATL @ GB (-3.5)
Atlanta's bad, GB is of almost chicago quality here.

SEA @ NYG (-6.5)
Another team that has all of its good days behind it.

TB @
DEN (-4)
Dont bet on this, theres much better games out there like chicago v det

NE @ SF (+3)
Lets go with another home dogg here

BUF @ Phx (-1.5)
I like the bills here may have to parlay this

CIN @ DAL (-16)
Too many points

PIT @ JAX(-5)

Min @ NO(-3)

Sorry to be so short here gotta place some real wagers.

Saturday, October 04, 2008

Commodore Cash Cow

I apologize for failing to get the 'Ship Picks out last week. Hopefully you were reasonably successful in your gambling endeavors without my input. This weekend, The Battleship is under the command of the Commodores from Vanderbilt, who are +4 at home against Auburn.

Vandy is 4-0 ATS and outright this year, has wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss and is coming off a bye. Auburn is 1-4 ATS and coming off three straight games that were decided by less than a touchdown. The Tigers' two wins in that span were decided by a grand total of 3 points and came over the miserable likes of Mississippi State and Tennessee. Auburn is averaging 12.6 points against SEC competition and yet they are laying 4 on the road against an undefeated SEC team with two wins in conference play.

The only real question is whether to take Vandy and the points or the moneyline (+155). Two weeks ago I counseled taking the LSU moneyline rather than laying two points against these same Auburn Tigers. LSU won by 5, but only because they managed to score a late touchdown after one of those drives where the cameras keep cutting away after every play to show the field goal kicker warming up. I guess it comes down to what type of gambler you are. This game is like a hand of blackjack in which you have two kings and the dealer is showing a six. Do you split your kings to try to make a really big score or do you sit on your 20, which is almost a sure thing? I'd take the sure thing, personally.

Did you know that Miami and Florida State are playing this weekend? Me either, until I looked over the college lines. Remember when this game was such a big deal that ESPN would cut into whatever game you were watching every 10 minutes to show you the latest sack/punt block/field goal?

As for my NFL picks, well, since that is supposed to be the point of this whole exercise, I guess
I'll list them below. If you like money do not take my NFL picks seriously unless you are betting against them.

Indianapolis -3 at Houston: This used to be an AC special where he'd put a ton of $$$ on Indy moneyline. The teams may be closer this year but I still have trouble taking the Texans over the Colts.

Baltimore +3 vs Tennessee: These are the only teams in the NFL that are undefeated ATS this year. That is kind of like if the Lions and the Rams were playing, only its the exact opposite. I expect a low scoring game so I'll take the home team and the points.

San Diego -6.5 at Miami: I think Miami's win over New England was a fluke and because they started out 0-2 San Diego is a little underrated right now.

Carolina -9.5 vs Kansas City: This is kind of a homer pick because I have Jake Delhomme in both of my fantasy leagues and he is, in my opinion, due for a breakout game.

Philadelphia +6 vs Washington: The Redskins are not good enough to beat the Cowboys and Eagles in back-to-back games on the road. I like Philly by a touchdown.

Chicago -3.5 at Detroit: Unless they are playing the Rams, the Lions should always get at least a touchdown no matter where the game is.

Last Sunday Steve Schrader had an article in the Detroit Free Press in which he quoted from an interview that Mike Ditka gave on the "JJ and Lynne Morning Show" on WCSX FM (94.7) sort of defending Matt Millen. Essentially, his point was that Matt Millen doesn't play so he doesn't deserve all of the blame. I'm not even going into his take on Millen. What I found even more laughable was this quote from the interview:

"I'm just saying you better be careful what you wish for, because there's no guarantee that it's going to get better until you change the whole mentality of that organization and you go back to what the Lions used to stand for; they were a tough hard-nosed football team."

Mike Ditka is really old. This reminds me of Republicans that reference their party's legacy of freeing the slaves when addressing the NAACP. Yes, it is true that the Republican party began as a bunch of disgruntled Whigs who broke away from that party to form a new, explicitly pro-emancipation party, just as I'm sure that the Lions were a "tough hard-nosed football team" during Ditka's playing days when face masks and foward passing were new-fangled. All technically true but hardly relevant with the 14th amendment and the West Coast Offense firm fixtures in modern society.

New York Giants -7 vs. Seattle: The Seahawks have Branch and Engram back for this one, and I think Burress is out. I'm still taking the Giants because they are a much better football team.

Since I don't want to appear partisan, let me use this game as an opportunity to make an analogy poking fun at the Democrats, who try to woo evangelical voters by claiming that Jesus would approve of their social welfare programs. That may be true, but evangelical voters believe that abortion is literally infanticide. It takes a lot more than Head Start and universal health care to tip the scales against perceived baby killing, and it will take a lot more than a few wide receivers for the Seahawks to compete against the Giants.

Denver -3 vs. Tampa Bay: I'm not sure what to make of Denver after last week's debacle. I do think they are good enough to beat Tampa at home by more than 3 points.

New England -3 at San Francisco: Don't think too much on this one. New England is still pretty good despite last week and San Francisco stinks.

Buffalo +1.5 at Arizona: Why is Arizona favored in this game? Buffalo is 4-0 because they've been able to beat crappy teams like Arizona. This line doesn't make any sense to me, which probably means that I'm missing something big, which probably means that Arizona is going to win by 10 points. I'm still taking the Bills.

Cincinnatti +16 at Dallas: 16 is a lot of points for an NFL line.

Jacksonville -4 vs Pittsburgh: My coworker is a Steelers fan and insists that they never have success at Jacksonville. Plus, the Steelers are dipping into their practice squad for running backs.

Minnesota +3 at New Orleans: Games like this make me depressed that I traded Adrian Peterson to Dr. BS for Darren McFadden and Kellen Winslow. Peterson is the one who was supposed to get injured, damnit!

Friday, October 03, 2008

Midwest be cold. Need some of of those apple bottom jeans and boots with the furrrrr

"For those of you traveling to South Bend, I apologize. The aircraft that we were told was on its way from the hangar – it looks like that was not actually on its way at that time, I apologize. We are still waiting on that aircraft, and right now we can’t get a straight answer on what the status is on it being ready for us.”

Back in the great American Midwest, sitting in the O’Hare airport’s F-concourse. More like the WTF concourse – huzzah! I tell you, it’s infuriating knowing that I am missing out on quality time I could be spending in Michiana. My mom could be showing me where they put the new YMCA right now. Instead I get to sit here with all these XXL bastards proudly wearing clothing bearing the name of their favorite baseball team. Never has the Midwest been so well represented in the baseball playoffs (note: it may have, I didn’t check). Two Chicago teams. Milwaukee. Even Minnesota got to be in a one game playoff. As a supporter of the last-place Tigers, I hope all of these teams lose in the first round. It’s football season and all this baseball support is downright embarrassing. Well you all can have fun watching your teams with their pitchers who can make it out of the first inning without giving up three runs and your hitters who live up to or exceed expectations. I’ll stick with my Detroit Lions. And look out for the hottest new Lions site coming soon:

Just boarded Amtrak in my hometown, heading across the southern part of the great lakes (and great times!) state. Destination: Ann Arbor, home of Arnie and the MastroV. My train got to the station an hour late, but I could not board for another half hour because there was a busted train on the other track at the station blocking the walkway to my train. As a veteran of Amtrak, this is not a surprising delay. Back in my college years I used to take this line frequently to and from home and school and grew to accept the tardiness. And really, who really cares about being on schedule when there are more important things on your mind like,

“I’m going to make a huge profit on this kilo of cocaine I’m transporting!” or

“Golly, this stolen newborn I’m going to sell when I get to Chicago sure isn’t making a peep in my big suitcase. He must really like sleeping on trains!”

Amtrak: Experience the journey Smuggler’s Choice.

Unlike most trips I’ve had down these tracks, the only thing I’m smuggling today is a multi-day load. Really gross, huh? Yuck. I’ve never owned or considered owning a blow-up doll that you can penetrate, but I’m guessing that some folks who do sometimes like to pull out early and serve up a facial on the inanimate object, perhaps with a VCR tape cued up just right to Marv Albert saying “FACIAL!” during an old NBA broadcast.

Anyway, I’ll be attending the Michigan vs Illinois game on Saturday. This is an intriguing game from a betting standpoint because it seems to me that it would be quite a headache setting a line for a game involving Michigan right now after that tale-of-two-halves performance against Wisconsin. Last I checked Michigan was a 2.5 point favorite. This is one of those games I can see them winning or losing by a couple touchdowns. So what’s the smart play? I’d say what you don’t want to do is a teaser, because you really shouldn’t be confident in either side keeping it real close. Probably a smart move is to look for one of those special Battleship-worthy adjusted lines with larger upsides. I’d lke to take both Michigan –12.5 and Illinois – 10 or whatever’s offered as long as each pays in the neighborhood of 4 to 1. Otherwise this is probably a good game to take a pass on unless you have a strong feeling about which Michigan team will show up.

Colts (-3) at TEXANS
I give up on those Texans. Andre Johnson is now on my fantasy bench, seated next to some of the league's most unproductive running backs.

RAVENS (+3) vs Titans
Too feel like royalty, wear purple corduroy pants while betting on the Ravens and sitting on a golden toilet seat.

Chargers (-6.5) at DOLPHINS
This game is a truck load of bags of masterlocks. I'm going big on this one.

Chiefs (+9.5) at PANTHERS
These teams are more mediocre than I thought a few weeks ago. 9.5 is way too many for me.

Redskins (+6) at EAGLES
This is going to be some good watchin'! Lots of classy fans at that game.

Bears (+3.5) at LIONS
Lock of the week part 2. Parlay parlay, 24-7 all day!

GIANTS (-7) vs Seahawks
It's so easy when good teams play bad ones.

BRONCOS (-3) vs Bucs
How about those Devil Rays? Baseball pants sure are long these days! In the military there are gays.

PATRIOTS (-3) at 49'ers
Just pretend like it's last year to reassure yourself.

Bills (+1.5) at CARDINALS
Also giving up on the cardinals. Can't keep that beak wet in the desert.

Bengals (+16) at COWBOYS
The cowboys are good but not deserving of this kind of line.

Steelers (+4) at JACKSONVILLE
Many injuries, but they'll just throw the ball and win.

Vikings (+3) at SAINTS
Both have flashy running backs but it will be the Vikings defense that wins this.

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